Nobody wants to jump the shark. It’s a surefire sign you’re on the downhill slope. The phrase “jump the shark” has embedded itself in North American culture, referring to the demarcation between “reasonably good Happy Days” and “incredibly lame Happy Days.” Many pundits of various disciplines jockey for position to be the first to declare definitively that “______” has jumped the shark.

The interest in amateur punditry has created a new dynamic, where a small critical mass of Shark Jumping Cries can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once the cool kids turn on you, you may not recover. Which brings us face-to-face with Facebook again.

From Buyout to Sellout

I stumbled across a link (hat tip: Bill Green) to a news story about a rising tide of angst among the Facebook Nation. They saw the headlines about Microsoft’s Micro-purchase, which subsequently set a capitalized value of $15-billion. (To put that in perspective involving a completely fictional statistic, that probably works out for a dollar each time a user has been pestered to add an application to their Facebook profile.) $15-billion seems really high, until you think about all of the wonderful personal data each user has forever locked away within the Facebook vault. There’s got to be a way to monetize all of that, right?

Needless to say, Facebook Nation is awakening to the reality that they might just be willing participants in history’s largest marketing experiment. Many of them are starting to resent it very much. The sentiment is starting to build that Facebook is sporting a leather jacket and a tow rope, ready to…

(okay. No one is saying that yet. Except Kevin Dugan, but he was talking about something else way back in June and this is my chance to be the first to… ah, never mind.)

Perception Becomes Reality

These memes are powerful, though. And they can spring forth from a very small nugget of reality. Why do you think Google has been ever so careful for so many years to cultivate the mantra of “Don’t Be Evil?” Because the cool kids in Mountain View understand just how quickly attitudes adjust online. Because the culture has been one of giving-giving-giving, with only moderate taking (and making money on volume-volume-volume.) Because Google has understood the value of wearing the leather jacket without the water skis.

Facebook is at a crossroads. Will it put on the skis, or will it tiptoe away to play another day?

Getting the most out of Facebook

Earlier, I mentioned how Facebook users were unwitting participants in a marketing experiment. As it turns out, we can turn the tables by doing market research of our own. For instance, in that same article cited above, we find an interesting little statistic:

It is early days, but so far Facebook’s online community is not impressed at being sold out. Discussion groups have sprung up attacking the new ad strategy. One, “My photos are MINE! NOT Facebook’s! Change the Terms and Conditions”, has almost 35,000 members, while around 12,000 people have signed up to “Facebook: Do not sell my private pictures! Change your terms of use, NOW!”

Contrast that with the feeble 600 so-called “fans” that Coke has on its Facebook page. And Blockbuster, that US movie lending giant, has a whopping two “fans”.

Blockbuster has only two fans on Facebook? I’m certain that the department that lobbied for the creation of that group had more than two team members. It’s rather embarrassing on two fronts. It’s bad enough if Blockbuster actually created the group - and it’s even worse if they didn’t.

A Blockbuster Failure?

Blockbuster is going through some very rough times. The brick-and-mortar stores are not faring well at all with the NetFlix model - which is based on the notion that postage and convenience is cheaper than physical buildings and redundant local inventories. Blockbuster has tried marketing an approach that is “best of both worlds” as it tries to establish on online rental alternative to NetFlix. At first glance, you might think that a Facebook presence would be helpful for Blockbuster, but not as a “Friends of” group. The more workable idea might be a “Movies I’m Watching” application, with an ever-so-slight branding. Something that shows what all your friends are watching too. Something that makes suggestions based on what your friends’ friends have liked.

I don’t know if Blockbuster is web-savvy enough to pull it off — and if Facebook is on water skis, then it’s too late anyway. I know that Blockbuster isn’t listening to blog entries. I wrote a very glowing review of my last experience at a Blockbuster, where an employee was quite helpful. I wanted to know how I could brag to about this employee’s exemplary service. I marked up the entry with obvious tags to Blockbuster. If they were even looking at all, it would have popped up in neon. All I wanted to do was brag on this employee who went out of his way. That was ago. The clock is still ticking. Now is gone. Consider the shark jumped.

Last week I had the great opportunity to go back to Georgetown University. I am an alumnus of the Communications, Culture and Technology Masters Program (photo credit: Dick Leonhardt in 1963!)

This program is at the crux of communications’ new order. Conceived in 1996, the program recognizes that communications has become multidisciplinary. It involves cultural norms and behavioral patterns, communications media forms, and technology’s certain impact on the way we interact in our communities. Social media certainly fits in!

Students have the ability to choose their own path within a wide variety of CCT and other department courses to forge an understanding this dynamic movement. It was fascinating talking to the students, who are getting into some really bleeding edge studies of Facebook identity, social media network usage, and more. CCT students are the future of communications, and many alumni have moved on to very successful careers.

It brought back fond memories, too. I got to catch up with CCT Program Director Linda Garcia, who has guided the program from its rocky sophomoric efforts to an established powerhouse in the Greater Washington region. Back in 2000, my thesis focused on mobile Internet’s potential to surpass landline usage and built a diffusion model.

GNOVIS Podcast

While there I had the opportunity to do a podcast with GNOVIS Managing Editor Brad Weikel. GNOVIS is the official student journal of CCT, so check it out. Lots of fascinating insights. In the podcast we discussed:

• How the book happened, including it’s name
• Brian Solis, and the nature of PR 2.0
• The goal of moving executives from one-way to two communications
• jetBlue versus Southwest social media
• New media is old fashioned relationships
• PR’s slow adoption of social media
• Bubble: The rise of dot bombs in the current environment
• The culture part of CCT and sociology

Listen or download it here!

Now Is Gone was the #1 bestseller for several hours tonight in its class on Amazon, Computers & Internet/Business & Culture/Culture…

My completely shameless monthly exercise in subjective measures of greatness…the Most Influential Blogger post. Winners get complimentary Blogs of Fire T-Shirts.

This list changes quite a bit from month-to-month, ranking by cumulative score allows for a better picture of my most influential bloggers. And this also creates a nice year end post. Year-to date rankings are at the bottom.

November’s Top Five are…..

1) PR Squared’s Todd Defren has demonstrated some serious leadership in a time when his firm came under fire from Marshall Kirkpatrick and Chris Andersen. His ability to not only address the problems, but create solutions, his continued commitment to ethical communications, and his willingness to tackle tough issues continue to impress me. Here’s to you, Todd. Trial by fire suits you well.

2) Valeria Maltoni has had a great month, too. She just looks at social media from a very pragmatic standpoint, that of an internal comms director. She also really gets into things. Look at how she has plunged into twitter, and what she gets out of it. Always a good read.

3) Shel Israel. Yup, back on the list. Just because he is who he is. I listen to him, enjoy his candor, our conversations, and his undying enthusiasm for social media. I often think of becoming a recovering PR person, too. Shel walks the talk, too, and you can never underestimate that! Consider all the work he’s doing to highlight global social media adoption.

4) Brian Oberkirch has had a particularly prescient month. Most importantly, Brian reminds me not to take myself too seriously. His writing style is mirthful and candid. His points are savvy and right on without a lot of self absorbed pontification.

5 tie) Kami Huyse, the queen of measurement, continues to beat the drum, and perhaps really focus this industry on some quality issues. As usual, a hat tip for Kami.

5 tie) Brian Solis: Great posts on blogger relations this month, plus PR roundtable contributions were excellent. We actually talk about and use Brian’s stuff in our practice so that in its own right is a pretty strong endorsement. I’ve had a lot of fun with our Now Is Gone podcasts, too.

Quick recap:

October’s top five in order were Kami Huyse, Chris Brogan, Anthony Williams, Brian Solis, and Chris Heuer.

September’s top five in order were Jeremiah Owyang, Toby Bloomberg, Shel Holtz, Ike Pigott, and Seth Godin.

August’s were Valeria Maltoni, Rich Becker, Shel Israel, Toby Bloomberg, and Eric Eggertson.

July’s were Brian Oberkirch, Chris Heuer, Kevin Dugan, Jeremiah Owyang, and Kami Huyse.

Yes, continued link love for the rest of the year for all noted parties.

Blogger of the Year

For the Blogger of the Year ranking: Five points for first place down to one for fifth place, and cumulating the score. Our weighted 2007 ranking so far…

• Valeria Maltoni - 9
• Kami Huyse - 7
• Brian Oberkirch - 7
• Jeremiah Owyang - 7
• Toby Bloomberg -6
• Shel Israel - 6
• Todd Defren - 5
• Chris Heuer - 5
• Rich Becker - 4
• Chris Brogan - 4
• Anthony Williams - 3
• Kevin Dugan - 3
• Shel Holtz - 3
• Brian Solis - 3
• Ike Pigott -2
• Eric Eggertson - 1
• Seth Godin - 1

Right now Valeria Maltoni is shaping up to be my most influent blogger of the year! It’s a tight race, though. Anyone from Chris Heuer and Todd Defren on up is in the running. It just takes one first place finish!!!

Shel Israel has done a lot of research on behalf of SAP on the adoption of social media globally. In his discussions this fall, he has indicated that country by country, the result is the same: Younger generations are flocking towards conversational media forms. Now come reports from Australia that the business community has noticed.

 Lee Hopkins, Australia’s premier independent PR blogger, noted in an earlier post today that he is getting inundated with requests for knowledge on social media.  In the comments section, fellow Australian social media expert Mark Bradley concurs. Companies through Australia want to know more. From Lee’s post:

The clients that I speak with are all really keen to know about Social Media, and want to start considering how they are going to fit it within their communications matrix. But we all know how slowly the wheels can move in large corporations, don’t we.

Yet it is precisely the large corporates that have the resources to splash a few dollars at this and see ‘what sticks’. As my colleague Mrs Jones says, “I wonder if the public would see blogs as more credible if they knew that media were scouring them for story ideas and sources?”

Something tells me that somewhere someone ‘big’ is about to launch an initiative… I have no evidence to back me up other than just my intuition.

There’s been a number of us making presentations behind the scenes — very shortly one of those presentations will ‘take root’ and give flower.

It appears that Now Is Gone in Australia, too.  Thank you, Lee for allowing this re-use of your content.

Chapter Two of Now Is Gone goes into great detail to determine whether or not social media is the right thing for a business. Surprise, surprise, though I love social media, I know it’s not the best thing for all companies.

Web 2.0 (or social media) communications tools have become all the rage for companies. Businesses have a wide variety of tools at their disposal; blogs, community forums, social networks, videos, and wikis.

For small businesses, they provide an unusual equalizer, a way to demonstrate subject matter expertise and compete head-to-head with larger service organizations. On the Internet, size matters less. By communicating with stakeholders who, directly or indirectly, affect your business, you can build a better relationship with your community.

But are these tools right for the corporate culture to achieve their desired outcomes. Is social media the right tool for your small business? Yes, it’s more cost effective than advertising and media relations, but can you commit to loss of message control, open consumer correspondence, knowledge of community, substantial resource obligations, and business transparency?

These necessary tasks create the foundation of a valuable social media outreach program. Here are five areas that businesses struggle with in engaging social media.

1) Is Your Community Social Networking Savvy?

Social media communications tools are just that, and they should only be used if your stakeholders can be reached through those tools to affect an outcome. With 54% of bloggers under the age of 30, organizations that appeal to a largely older crowd would not be well served in creating a blog or social networking campaign (according to Pew Internet). However, even if 15 to 25% of a company’s buyers are in that range, then it is wise to address these customers in the social media space.

The social media dialogue can be thought of as a continuous focus group. New media forms become more valuable as time progresses and users of social networks mature and enter the workforce.

2) Giving Up Control of the Message

Corporate control of the message does not exist in the new media environment. Social media users often comment about a company’s perceived flaws or possible alternative views in spite of traditional media coverage. Companies have to be willing to take public criticism if they will be successful with their social media tools.

But negative commenting is not bad. In fact, it can provide great intelligence into the community’s needs, as well as provide a reason to engage customers one on one. By taking consumers’ concerns into account, corporations can relay their message directly and address feedback accordingly. This minimizes consumer frustration or anger and simply lets the user be heard.

Consider Dell Computers’ amazing brand image reversal based on their willingness to take on negative feedback directly. By responding to customer comments publicly through social media, a company becomes well regarded.

3) Participating in a Community

This new media “revolution” returns businesses to older values. Two centuries ago, it wasn’t just about business. It was about neighbors or friends who helped each other. This means companies have to give up spin and talk to customers in a conversational way.

Social media has made conversations possible again, albeit on a much larger scale with a plethora of micro-communities that interact with each other. Small businesses are better suited to understand one-on-one conversations in comparison to larger companies. By talking with its community, rather than at them, a company becomes an integral part of those communities.

4) Dedicating the Resources

The Internet is littered with failed corporate blogs and discontinued social media initiatives. Many simply can’t think of new, interesting content to post, and with the time necessary to commit to a blog, many simply decide to stop. Companies must be ready for the marathon.

A corporate blog or community site must be updated diligently to engage the community with appealing content for the life of the new media initiative, not just for the first few months. A unique look helps catch the reader’s eye. But keeping them there requires a constant creation of appealing content aimed at the community that only comes with significant time and thorough commitment. This commitment may grow over the life of the effort as it becomes more popular.

5) Ethics and Transparency

A brand is a promise to your community. If the public’s trust is broken by a company misrepresenting themselves with that promise, regaining trust will be difficult. Blog readers expect transparency in a corporate blog, especially in crisis situations. Airline company jetBlue paid a serious price for its failure to communicate on its blog during its Valentine’s Day crisis in 2006. You have to be ready to show your company’s true colors and correct wrongs as they happen.

Wrap-Up!

You are ready if your company can say its community is reading social media; that your company can take negative comments and communicate in a public conversation with its customers; can commit the time and creativity resources to do so; and can operate ethically in the toughest of times. Go and engage with these new dynamic communications technologies. Enjoy the great benefits of one on one conversations with your community.

Several folks received emails today from Amazon indicating they will not receive Now Is Gone until November 26th for the U.S., and December 5th for European Union customers.

First of all, let me apologize for this up front. A confluence of issues have occurred:

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One of the immutable laws of blogging (and building a community) is “share and share alike.” If you’re truly serious about cultivating relationships, remember it is what you say and not where you say it that matters. This notion still gets mishandled by some, who are depending on old metrics like page-views and click-throughs. The new measure that matters is influence, and you can’t influence people by switching to a partial RSS feed. Partial feeds just end up anno-

Click here to read the rest of this post.

The book launched today. Earlier in the evening the book was ranked number two in its category on Amazon (we try harder)! Thank you to everyone who responded to our call for help and got us there.

Then Lewis Green provided one of the very first reviews of the book, vis a vis an interview on Bizsolutionsplus. Here’s what Lewis had to say:

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